The Democrats’ optimism about becoming America’s undisputed majority party hinges largely on the expanding minority population, especially Hispanics and blacks. Add the women’s vote to the equation, and happy days are almost certain to come again.
The joker in the deck has always been whether Hispanics and blacks will register and vote in numbers commensurate with their overall numbers. Historically, their voting records have not been that reassuring. And 52 percent of white women voted for Trump in 2016.
Two reports out today should raise some red flags for Democrats.
(Excerpt) “Democrats are worried about Latino voters in the midterms, fearing that weak efforts to energize a core element of their base could imperil their bid to win control of Congress in next month’s elections.”
“From the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Nevada and Arizona to sprawling turf wars in Texas and Florida, there are signs that the Hispanic vote — which party leaders have long hoped would be the foundation of future electoral success — has yet to flourish in their favor this year.”
Jim Galloway, in the AJC: “White (GA) women voters are sticking — not just with Kemp, but Trump, too.”
In the latest AJC-Channel 2 poll, nearly 64 percent of white women voters polled approved of the way Trump is handling his job. Yep, large numbers of women are still eager supporters of the most sexist, misogynistic President in our history.
No question, Georgia’s female voters are widely out of synch with American women as a whole. Recent polls show women have swung even more Democratic than usual.
According to an NPR analysis of recent likely-voter polls, this year’s gender gap could be even bigger than those in 2014 and 2016, with women far more Democratic than in either of those years.
White, college-educated women in particular are fleeing the GOP.
In one poll among voters in battleground Congressional districts, 46 percent of women surveyed said they’ll vote for Democrats while 34 percent said they plan to vote for Republicans.
No Time for Complacency
But the fact that ought to rivet the mind of Democrats: Congressional and governor’s races are won at the local, not national level. And it’s voter turnout, not the general opinion of Hispanics and women, that determine the outcome of an election. In how many Congressional districts could a lack of Hispanic or women’s turnout for the Democratic candidate influence the outcome?
And those polls showing women overwhelmingly supporting Democrats—in today’s #MeToo climate, how many women might be ashamed to admit to voting for Trump but do so in the privacy of the voting booth?